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[Bug-gnubg] Guestimated abs. rating too high ?
From: |
Peter Orum |
Subject: |
[Bug-gnubg] Guestimated abs. rating too high ? |
Date: |
Sun, 4 Aug 2002 16:17:35 +1000 |
Hi,
It seems to me that perhaps the estimated ratings are too high,
perhaps by as much as 100 points. This is based on my own history
and many matches against GGRaccoon on GamesGrid.
For example, the match attached gives me a rating of 2038, and
GGRaccoon 2095. According to http://www.gamesgrid.com/faq-
GGrobots.html, GGRaccoon's average rating is 1935, and the highest
it has currently been is 2072 according to its info page. It seems to me
its rating is generally between 1850 and 1950. GGRaccoon plays with
no lookahead. I would suggest that the Guestimated rating for the
attached match could be 1995 for GGRaccoon. 2095 is just too high.
Similarly for myself, on FIBS and GamesGrid my highest ratings have
been about 1930, and currently I am 1850 to 1880. I would suggest
that for this match, 1938 is more reasonable than 2038.
I am basing this on not this match alone. I would be happy to provide
more matches & statistics if you would like them. I think having the
Guestimated ratings based on GGRaccoon is a good way to relate
the error rate to actual achievable ratings, and ratings over 2000
should only apply to a perfect match.
Regards,
Peter
Player GGraccoon porum
Checkerplay statistics:
Total moves: 216 205
Unforced moves: 199 181
Moves marked very good 0 0
Moves marked good 0 0
Moves marked interesting 0 0
Moves unmarked 210 190
Moves marked doubtful 6 7
Moves marked bad 0 6
Moves marked very bad 0 2
Error rate (total) -0.633 ( -6.675%) -1.699 (-17.912%)
Error rate (pr. move) -0.003 ( -0.034%) -0.009 ( -
0.099%)
Checker play rating: Extra-terrestrial World class
Rolls marked very lucky 4 3
Rolls marked lucky 10 12
Rolls unmarked 199 186
Rolls marked unlucky 3 3
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 1
Luck rate (total) +3.542 (+69.975%) +2.673 (+43.276%)
Luck rate (pr. move) +0.016 ( +0.324%) +0.013 (
+0.211%)
Luck rating: None None
Cube decisions statistics:
Total cube decisions 114 130
Doubles 4 5
Takes 2 4
Pass 3 0
Missed doubles around DP 3 (-0.278 ( -2.278%) 0
(+0.000 ( +0.000%)
Missed doubles around TG 0 (+0.000 ( +0.000%) 1 (-
0.038 ( -0.249%)
Wrong doubles around DP 1 (-0.041 ( -0.250%) 0
(+0.000 ( +0.000%)
Wrong doubles around TG 0 (+0.000 ( +0.000%) 1 (-
0.003 ( -0.036%)
Wrong takes 2 (-0.142 ( -1.358%) 0 (+0.000 (
+0.000%)
Wrong passes 0 (+0.000 ( +0.000%) 0
(+0.000 ( +0.000%)
Error rate (total) -0.461 ( -3.886%) -0.041 ( -0.285%)
Error rate (per cube decision) -0.004 ( -0.034%) -0.000 ( -
0.002%)
Cube decision rating: Extra-terrestrial Extra-terrestrial
Overall statistics:
Error rate (total) -1.094 (-10.560%) -1.741 (-18.197%)
Error rate (per decision) -0.003 ( -0.034%) -0.006 ( -0.059%)
Overall rating: Extra-terrestrial World class
Match winning chance
against opponent: 57.64% 42.36%
Guestimated abs. rating: +2095.14 +2038.05
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Date: 4 Aug 2002, 15:38
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- [Bug-gnubg] Guestimated abs. rating too high ?,
Peter Orum <=