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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts
From: |
David Montgomery |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts |
Date: |
Thu, 5 Sep 2002 20:02:02 -0700 |
Douglas Zare wrote
> There was an interesting question on the Gammonline bulletin board about
the
> standard deviation in cubeless rollouts and the standard deviations of
live
> cube results. I've included an excerpt below, in which I attempt to
estimate a
> confidence interval for the difference between doubling and not doubling.
I'm
> not sure what the best way to do this is, but I suggest that an attempt
would
> be worth implementing in gnu.
Isn't the right way to do this a paired t-test?
This is what I thought, anyway, after talking with
Jeremy Bagai about it. Each game forms a pair with
double and no-double result. Since the two are so
highly correlated, you should get a much tighter
confidence interval than the joint standard deviation.
The same thing could be applied to checker plays, but
it's not as clean, especially for 3+ plays. Then you
are probably supposed to do some multi-way analysis of
variance, of which I am unfortunately ignorant.
David
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Confidence intervals from rollouts, (continued)
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Re: Confidence intervals from rollouts, Joern Thyssen, 2002/09/05
- [Bug-gnubg] Re: Confidence intervals from rollouts, pepster, 2002/09/06
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, Nis Jorgensen, 2002/09/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, David Montgomery, 2002/09/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, Douglas Zare, 2002/09/05
- RE: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, David Montgomery, 2002/09/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, Joern Thyssen, 2002/09/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, Joern Thyssen, 2002/09/08
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Confidence intervals from rollouts, Joern Thyssen, 2002/09/05