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Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout
From: |
Achim Mueller |
Subject: |
Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout |
Date: |
Thu, 5 Jul 2007 11:35:29 +0200 |
User-agent: |
Mutt/1.5.9i |
* Joseph Heled <address@hidden> [070705 11:14]:
> With gnubg/Jelly we have p = .593 (estimated win percentage) and N =
> 1000. The 95% confidence interval is [.562,.623], so we can be sure
> gnubg is better.
>
> gnubg/bgb p=.519 and the interval is [.487,.55] so you can't say gnubg
> is better than any of the others.
I understand your calculation, but what is wrong with mine? I took the
binominal distribution and my numbers seem to be correct, aren't they?
sqrt(519*481/1000) = sqrt(249,639) = 15.799
actual result(+38)/sigma(15.799) = 2.4 (oops, in my first calculation I
took +36, damn).
2.4 ---> 99.18% confidence that the same set of 1000 25p matches will
produce a win for gnubg. Ok, I miscalculated it, but this is even more
in favour of gnubg.
Ciao
Achim
- [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Achim Mueller, 2007/07/04
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Øystein Johansen, 2007/07/04
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/04
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Achim Mueller, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout,
Achim Mueller <=
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Achim Mueller, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Achim Mueller, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Achim Mueller, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/05
- Re: [Bug-gnubg] Results from the bot shootout, Joseph Heled, 2007/07/05