Forget my last reply, didn't notice
yuou were referring to the MWC formula ...
MaX.
Massimiliano Maini/NCE/AMADEUS wrote on 13/05/2008
17:11:42:
> I think the formula is already in gnubg, it's the "Error based
abs.
> FIBS rating". >
> MaX.
> address@hidden
wrote on
> 13/05/2008 17:06:04:
>
> > That is exactly what I am searching for. Thank you very much.
I
> > suppose that even with a biased cube error rate I will get pretty
> > good results. The rating difference D must be D = R_favorite
-
> > R_underdog, right?
> > Now that you are thinking about recalculating the values submitted
> > by Kees van den Doel, how about integrating the formula into
GnuBG?
> > I think that would be quite handy and appreciated by most users!
> > Thanks for your efforts and good luck with the calculations.
I am
> > looking forward to the reviewed formula!
> >
> > Thomas Koch
> >
> >
> > 2008/5/12 Michael Petch <address@hidden>: > > Considering that all you need is EPM and
EPC (The error rates for
> > the Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice.
> > The value N in the formula is the match length. These 3 values
can
> > simply be plugged into this reduce formula:
> >
> > R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC,
> >
> > R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match
length values. > >
> > On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <address@hidden>
wrote:
> >
> > The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel:
> >
> > http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/
> >
> > The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized
at the
> > top. How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90%
of
> > the article after that.
> >
> > Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then
use
> > the Fibs formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC.
The
> > part of the fibs formula you want is here:
> > Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use
it as
> > the value for variable "D" in the formula below. The
match length is
> > variable "n"
> >
> > First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U =
> > 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1)
> > To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed
as 1-U
> >
> > So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating
> > difference computed by Kee's forumla at the link provided was
47.13
> > (for example), you would get soemthing like:
> >
> > D = 47.13 (Rating difference)
> > n = 15 (Match length)
> >
> > U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1)
> > U = .447655
> >
> > Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77%
> > Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23%
> >
> > I haven't done any investigation, but I'm not sure if the
> > information needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part
1
> > above) is available through standard player records, but I am
pretty
> > sure if you use the relational database to store the records
that
> > all the info you need is there.
> >
> > Let me know if this helps at all.
> >
> > Mike
> >
> > On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <address@hidden>
wrote:
> > Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate)
my match winning
> > chances against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown
in
> > the player records? Let's say my error rate in the player record
is
> > 0.0200 and my opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate
my
> > match winning chances for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would
> > like to get something like the "luck adjusted result"
from the match
> > statistics which tells me that I am e.g. 60% favorite to win
a 5pter
> > against this opponent. What is the formula?
> >
> > Thanks in advance,
> > Thomas Koch
> >
> >
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> >
> > Michael Petch
> > Quortech Solutions Ltd.
> > Cell: (403)804-5700
> > Home: (403)209-1628
> > Off: (403)516-2612
> >
> >
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