Securities market in the near future

[JSuplacz]

 

2 APR 2003 | Please be careful for next weeks. Indexes will be rising quickly but it is only a correct wave. In my opinion, S&P500 will rise to 950, DAX to 3400-3800. On these levels one should take short positions.

My prognoses are aimed in 90-95%. Please check on newsgroups (especially pl.biznes.wgpw) or visit my site. Some prognoses were published in financial newspapers.

I am looking for people, funds interested to establish the new fund/subfund operating on SECURITIES FX markets.

SECURITIES FX FUND

My basic rule is a simultaneously analysis of several markets, indexes. An analysis of one chart would cause frequent mistakes - from two reasons: either the situation is too apparent (and the market notice it) or the situation is doubtful (what makes to be out of the market). An analysis of several markets, indexes causes that one can curry over a middle-term cycle to another market and explain which of possibilities will be realize on a proper market. Only a simultaneously analysis of markets, indexes shows traps of the analyzed market.

Analyzes of alone market are correct in 70-80% plus often staying out of the market. Simultaneously analyzes of several charts are correct in 90% and give more possibilities.

A macroeconomic analysis should be aside to the end of technical analysis. In fact, fundamental analyses there are emotions and psychology of whom analyses the market. For example: an appreciation of a currency is justified that there is a better trade balance. Nevertheless, most often the better trade balance is the result of a worse situation on the inland market. The appreciation of the local currency makes worse situation on the internal market. More difficult situation on the inland market makes, in spite of the appreciation of the local currency, that the export dynamically rises. And analyzers will be assert: "In spite of some problems (but each country in the same time may be in a worse situation), this country has again and again more competitive economy - the appreciation of the currency is justified, at all!" Of course to time (the real adaptation and growth of economy is a longer). Theoretically, one can take into consideration the profits of companies, but these data are moved in the time towards a trade balance. Moreover, the data about the real companies' profits (i.e. the information about a real condition of firms) are much and much more moved in the time! - one can say at least by one cycle.

My analysis is based on Elliott and Fibonacci. For FOREX is used different rules than to securities market. In additional, I have recognized some rules that are from Fibonacci's interdependencies - actually, I want to have it for my knowledge. It improves the accuracy of prognosis to 90-95%. In fact, it is not Fibonacci, but in Fibonacci algorithms has its genesis. That is, in order, my techniques of analyses.

The expectable profits:

• 3-4% per month if the fund will be operating only on FX
• 5-6% per month if there will be also securities (indexes and stocks from EuroStoxx50 S&P500). I prefer to take positions on securities market than on forex.

More information about my prognoses is on the site.

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